Is Social Media Going Away?
Recently we’ve seen a number of articles surmising about the death of social media as we know it. The growth rate peaked in 2020 / 2021 and currently time spent on social media is lower than it was in 2019 and growth itself has slowed as we reach a ceiling of usage (at least until someone figures out how to cram more than 24 hours in a day). True, there are small pockets where the number of users is increasing - in the U.S. where current usage is below the global average, Boomers (Facebook is their platform of choice), and on TikTok, but overall, people are spending less time sharing and liking. Where is this trend headed?
Before we look to the future, we should look to the past and how we got to where we are today.
Web 1.0: Key metric - page views. Focus on the company.
At its inception, the internet (Web1.0 - there is some discrepancy around exact dates, but most experts agree the dates are around 1989 to 2004) was non-interactive and read only. It was designed as a source of information so people didn’t have to go to a library or refer to their shelves of Encyclopedia Britannica if they wanted to look something up. There were very few creators populating static pages connected via hyperlinks. Internet email started to gain traction with providers such as Microsoft’s Internet Mail (the precursor to Outlook) and Hotmail.
Web 2.0: Key metric - cost per click. Focus on the community.
Participation and contribution were the focus of Web 2.0 (again, some discrepancy on the exact dates, however around the years 2005 to 2010). New technologies opened up the possibilities for content creation, focusing more on User-Generated Content. Dynamic (clickable) elements were introduced allowing people to interact through buttons, links and forms. You no longer needed mass media to share your thoughts and opinions. Blogs and podcasts meant that anyone could think of themselves as a journalist or DJ, and allowed users to widely share the content they created. And social media meant that we could interact with that content through liking, sharing and tagging. No more letters to the editor or calls into radio stations to interact with content creators. Technology such as smartphones fueled this growth as people were no longer literally tethered to their computers to participate!
But there was also a cost for participating. There is the monetary cost to purchase some content through subscriptions or enhancing your experience through in-app purchases, but also the cost of your time as platforms looked for other means to generate revenue and advertising became more and more prevalent. Personal data has also become a currency. Buried in the fineprint of user agreements, was the acknowledgement that your personal information could be sold.
These costs to participate are adding up. Revenue models for social media platforms were built on the premise of unlimited growth. But as we are reaching the usage ceiling - both in terms of number of users and time per user, individuals are spending less time engaging in social media as the experience becomes less and less enjoyable with platforms cramming more and more ads into the time we spend there.
So where are we headed as users tire of the endless intrusion of advertising and become more and more cognizant of security, the risks associated with sharing of their personal information and who actually owns this data? Web 3.0.
Web 3.0: Key metric - user engagement. Focus on the individual.
Often used interchangeably, Web 3.0 (after 2010), semantic web, is slightly different than Web3, decentralized web, which is primarily about security and data control utilizing blockchain technology. It’s difficult to change or remove any data in Web3. Web 3.0 utilizes different technology, machine learning and focuses on linking data across websites. Users control, from a central space, 3rd party access to their information. Data can be easily changed or deleted. Whether Web3 or 3.0 it’s clear that the main premise of the evolution of the next generation of the internet is around control. Control over who owns your personal data and how it gets used.
Back to the Future
So back to the original question, is social media going away? Probably not, but we can expect lots of changes. The following are some examples of what we are currently seeing as well as what we anticipate we will experience in the future.
Changing the user experience:
As social media platforms search for new opportunities to generate revenue, they will continue to look for ways to maximize advertising revenue. This means more and more frequent advertising. At least as we see personalization of ad content increasing, this should translate to the ads that we are served being more relevant.
Fragmentation:
Mindset: Users who prioritize freedom of speech and the ability to post and comment without the censorship of admins will likely continue to move towards platforms such as Minds and Mastodon. The impact of this fragmentation will be fewer and fewer places of common ground where discussions around differing ideologies can happen in a civil setting leading to greater divisiveness.
Generational: Web 3.0 is more difficult to navigate and understand than Web 2.0. We can anticipate that some Gen X, Boomers and others who were late adopters of social media will resist the change and stick with familiar platforms such as Facebook and Instagram
Rewarding participation:
In Web 2.0 content creators were rewarded with likes and shares. New platforms reward participation beyond the endorphin high of people interacting with your content, to tokens and points with the vision of these rewards being redeemable for goods, services and exclusive events. Wubits is already doing this with participants earning cryptocurrency for sharing strategies and insights.
Rethinking advertising:
Traditional advertising has resisted targeting advertising of any product to seniors, with the exception of those specifically intended for that audience such as reverse mortgages or adult lifestyle communities. Many seniors don’t see themselves reflected in advertising, which typically relegates Boomers to the role of doting grandparent despite the fact that 24% see themselves as career-focused. The increasing use of social media by this segment combined with their relative wealth and the ability for marketers to target them without alienating younger generations leads us to believe that Facebook and Instagram aren’t going to disappear any time soon.
Where are we headed?
So is social media going away? In our opinion, not any time soon.
If you are looking for help with your social media strategy or execution, Book a Call with a member of our team.
Sources:
https://www.contagious.com/news-and-views/the-end-of-social-media-for-advertisiers-and-brands-trend